Perëndimi grindet si të veprojë me Rusinë. Nga njëra anë anëtaret e NATO-s, Bullgaria, Rumania, Turqia apo vende të Ballkanit luajnë rol të rëndësishëm, nga ana tjetër dëgjohen prej andej tone të çuditshme.
Në kulmin e ashpërsimit të konfliktit me Rusinë, NATO shfaq shenjat e mungesës së unitetit si kurrë më parë. “SHBA dhe Mbretëria e Bashkuar janë për të treguar forcën, Gjermania, Franca e Italia theksojnë dialogun, kurse një grup i tretë rreth Bullgarisë, Hungarisë dhe Sllovakisë kërkon t’i rrijë larg konfliktit për stacionimin e trupave”, thotë Stefan Meister, ekspert në Shoqatën Gjermane për Politikën e Jashtme, DGAP për DW. Normalisht, Gjermania do duhej të ishte një nyjë lidhëse mes këtyre grupeve, por ky mungon për momentin, për shkak të dobësisë së lidershipit edhe në BE. “Kësaj i shtohet dobësimi nga populizmi, Trumpi dhe Brexit. Presidenti i Rusisë, Vladimir Putin përpiqet të përdorë këtë për të negociuar një rend të ri sigurie në Europë, pa SHBA”, analizon eksperti për Europën Lindore. Në këtë situatë vendet në juglindje të Europës, anëtare të NATO-s luajnë një rol të rëndësishëm.
Kroacia: “Në rast shkallëzimi tërheqje?”
E pikërisht nga ky rajon dëgjohen tone të çuditshme. Presidenti kroat, Zoran Milanoviç në fund të janarit shkaktoi reagime me deklaratën e tij, kur bëri të ditur tërheqjen e vendit të tij në rast të një konflikti me Ukrainën. “Në rast se vjen puna tek shkallëzimi, ne do të tërhiqemi deri në ushtarin e fundit kroat”, tha Milanoviç në Zagreb, pa saktësuar, se çfarë nënkupton, se në Ukrainë nuk ka asnjë ushtar kroat të stacionuar. Qeveria kroate u kundërpërgjigj menjëherë. “Presidenti nuk flet për Kroacinë, por për veten. Ne jemi dhe mbetemi një anëtare besnike e NATO-s”, theksoi ministri i Jashtëm kroat, Gordan Grlic Radman.
Interesantja në këtë kërcënim të presidentit kroat ishte, se as NATO e as SHBA nuk kanë kërkuar ndonjë angazhim ushtarak të Kroacisë, “Deklaratat e Milanoviçit i shërbejnë qëllimeve politike të brendshme, ato duhet të shihen në sfondin e konfliktit të vazhdueshëm me kryeministrin, Andrej Plenkoviç”, shpjegon Filip Milacic nga Fondacioni Friedrich Ebert për DW. “Këtu duket se presidenti po përdor kartën nacionaliste, e quan Milorad Dodikun, presidentin e serbëve boshnjakë, një ‘partner’ dhe u jep ushqim nacionalistëve kroatë për realizimin e ëndrrave të tyre për kufij të rinj një Bosnje me mbështetje ruse.”
Historia si “lobiist”në Bullgari
Në një dalje në televizionin bullgar BTV më 1 shkurt, ambasadorja ruse, Elenoroa Mitrofanova bëri tejet të qartë, se çfarë kërkon Rusia nga NATO: tërheqjen pas kufijve në kohën e 1997-s, pra tërheqjen edhe të trupave të NATO-s dhe bazave në vende si Rumania e Bullgaria. Formalisht këto vende mund të mbeten vende anëtare të NATO-s, por vetëm formalisht.
Ministri bullgar i Mbrojtjes, Stefan Janev të paktën mund të mësohet me këtë ide. Që në dhjetor 2021 kryeministri i ri Kiril Petkov duhej ta qortonte publikisht ministrin e tij, kur ai në Facebook u shpreh kundër transferimit të trupave të NATO-s në Bullgari. Në një seancë të parlamentit në janar, Janev kërkoi që “ne të ndalim së lexuari shtypin e huaj e së spekuluari. Duhet të jemi bullgarofil në kuptimin e interesave tona kombëtare bullgare.” Po qe se do duhet të stacionohen trupa të NATO-s në Bullgari duhet të jenë vetëm ato bullgare, sipas Janevit.
Theksimi i interesave kombëtare ka një sfond të brendshëm politik. Që nga hyrja në parlament në dhjetor 2021, nacionalistët e Partisë Rilindja e kanë vënë përpara qeverinë. Edhe ambasadorja Mitrofanova e di pozicionin e nacionalistëve bullgarë pro rusë. “Rusia ka ndikim në Bullgari, historinë tonë të përbashkët. Ajo është lobiistja më e rëndësishme, influencuesja më e rëndësishme e marrëdhënieve tona.”
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Ndryshe paraqitet gjendja në Rumani, që krahas Gjermanisë dhe Polonisë, një nga vendet, ku ka trupa amerikane dhe trupa të NATO-s. Sipas një sondazhi të Institutit INSCOP Research, NATO gëzon besimin më të madh tek rumunët krahasuar me vendet (ndër to edhe SHBA, Kina, Gjermania) apo organizata ndërkombëtare (ndër to BE). “Trupa shtesë të NATO-s jo vetëm që janë të mirëpritura, por edhe kapital politik për qeverinë”, thotë Sorin Ionita, politologe e think tank “Expert Group” në Bukuresht. “As edhe nacionalistët nuk guxojnë të flasin kundër.”
“Qeni i Putinit”
Në fokus të zhvendosjes së trupave të NATO-s ndodhet edhe Hungaria që ka një kufi të përbashkët me Ukrainën, si Rumania. Kryeministri, Viktor Orban ka një “marrëdhënie të veçantë” me Rusinë prej vitesh. Admirimi i tij publik për Putinin e refuzimi i sanksioneve kundër Rusisë i kanë dhënë atij nofkën “qeni Pinsher i Putinit”. Në fillim të shkurtit, Orban shkoi në Moskë për një “mision paqeje” si u shpreh ai. Por në fakt në qendër ishin furnizimet me gaz, që Hungaria i merr momentalisht nën vlerën e tregut dhe pjesëmarrja ruse në zgjerimin e centralit atomik, Paks. Budapesti i shmang diskutimet për angazhim më të madh të Hungarisë në NATO.
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Një marrëdhënie mjaft komplekse me Rusinë ka një vend i rëndësishëm strategjik i NATO-s, Turqia. Në luftën në Siri, Putini dhe presidenti Erdogan bashkëpunuan, në Libi ata mbështesnin grupacione të ndryshme. Në fillim Erdogani e injoroi NATO-n me blerjen e raketave mbrojtëse ruse, S-400, më vonë Ankaraja furnizoi Ukrainën me drone ushtarake. E ashtu si Gjermania, Hungaria apo Bullgaria edhe Turqia është e varur nga gazi rus apo nafta. “Ky është një akt delikat balancimi për Ankaranë. Erdogani ka një lidhje të veçantë me Ukrainën dhe do ta mbështesë atë dhe NATO-n. Nga ana tjetër ai nuk duhet të zemërojë aq Putinin, sa t’i mbyllet rubineti i gazit apo të kërkojë hakmarrje në Siri.”, thotë Asli Aydintasbas në Këshilli Europian për Marrëdhënie të Jashtme për DW.
Oferta e Putinit ndaj elitave të Ballkanit
“Ndryshe nga Perëndimi, Rusia e di, se çfarë do në Europën Lindore. Rivendosjen e pushtetit dhe zonave të inluencës, që i ka humbur në vitin 1991”, komenton eksperti britanik i Europës Lindore, Timothy Garton Ash në Guardian. Për të arritur këtë, Kremlini ka përdorur sidomos si strategji gazin e lirë dhe nacionalizmin në Europën Juglindore. Filip Milacic shton se “elitave nacionaliste në Ballkanin Perëndimor Rusia u ofron atë, që nuk ua ofron perëndimi: premtimin të ndryshojë kufijtë në rajon.”
Por as gazi me çmim të lirë, as nacionalizmi dhe mungesa e unitetit, nuk do të mjaftojnë për të ndarë NATO-n në rast konflikti, bën bilancin Stefan Meister. “SHBA si fuqi drejtuese mund ta arrijnë atë që duan, NATO është relativisht unike në lidhje me kërcënimin, e edhe nëse ndodh që shtete të vogla largohen, ato në rast udhëkryqi nuk do të venë në dyshim besnikërinë ndaj aleancës. Do të ofrohen armë, do të forcohen trupat, dhe do të fitohet kohë kundrejt Rusisë.”
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